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Speculation cannot forecast, decry market analysts

In the mad rush of cryptocurrency industry captains spouting market growth and market capitalization values by the handful, it was expected that the humdrum would be blown out by qualified, experienced and knowledgeable experts.

The outburst from market analysts was as expected as they belied ‘’forecasts” of impending growth and strategic expansion in everyday usage of cryptocurrencies.

Autonomous Research was the first to offer an update about the potential that the young asset class, cryptocurrency actually carries into the next fiscal and in the long term as well. The analyst firm says “We need better data and examples to define what economic success looks like before we can model how benefits accrue to asset owners, aside from sentiment and expectations.”

With expectations of a grand rise in prices of the emerging cryptocurrency agencies such as prominent banks, hedge funds as well as research houses are in the process of predicting the future of bitcoin. Their research reports are not yet prepared because of the inherent ‘uncertainty’ that these coins offer.  According to BMO Wealth Management’s Chief Investment Strategist, Yung-Yu Ma, “valuation involves extraordinary guesswork.’

The statement is a revelation as it clearly sets expectations on the findings of such organizations. At the same time, it also throws light on the ‘predictions’ and the ‘forecasts’ cryptocurrency experts are offering off-their cuffs.

Edging Aside

it is found that asset class cryptos are attempting to edge aside and create channels of funds from other classes such as gold. The gold stocks are valued at $7.5 trillion, and a market capitalization of these stocks is about $30 Trillion.

In another statement by analyst group Capital Economics, Vicky Redwood, “Claims that cryptocurrencies will replace established fiat currencies are rubbish,” they said, adding that replacing national currencies with a cryptocurrency is not “economically desirable.”

It does appear that analysts are forecasting cryptos which are focused on the virtual currency markets.

However, these ‘pillars’ of market research and analysis foresee the crypto bubble building. Bitcoin which grew at 2,478 percent in 2015 to 2017 says the rise was in relation to “symptomatic with the relation of bubble mania and will not qualify otherwise.”

In the meanwhile, according to Lex Sokolin who heads the Fintech Strategy division of Fintech Strategy at Autonomous Research, says “Until the regulatory question mark is resolved, I don’t expect to see price targets from the major banks because they would be taking the risk of having investors rely on that number and then exposing themselves to legal risks without having a solid valuation or methodology or confidence in that number because the volatility is so high and so many things can happen.”

Bitcoin price speculation has been the norm thus far. The assets of the crypto are now $300 billion, and it is expected to increase. These are calculated by means of trends and valuation approaches. Autonomous Research states that “is not a fundamental shift in capital markets, but a speculative slice of a speculative slice within a globally diversified portfolio.” Thus, market speculation and market analysis cannot be considered to be the same.


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As a writer, journalist, teacher and consultant, Ben has experienced lots of things. He believes in the idea that words can change the world. He currently resides in Ireland. He loves his family and says the thing that comes next to the family for him is his passion for writing.